Voice of Democracy
Published by Kazakhstan 21st Century Foundation · Washington, D.C. ·March. 22, 2004

'POLITICAL STABILITY RISK' -- Kazakhstan is a moderate-to-high political stability risk, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit Risk Wire. It is given an overall rating of “D” on a scale where “E” is "most risky." This assessment is based on several factors noted in the most recent analysis (http://riskwire.eiu.com):

• "There is no clear mechanism for the transfer of power as Kazakhstan has been ruled by one man since before independence, Nursultan Nazarbayev."

• "The Nazarbayev family is divided in a struggle for the succession. The entry of the president's daughter into politics in mid-2003 suggests a pre- emptive maneuver to position her as unquestioned successor, but she could face opposition from other members of the Nazarbayev family, most notably her brother-in-law, Timur Kulibayev."

• "The chances of the opposition coming to power are very small because of state repression and divisions between the opposition groups."

• "Executive power is concentrated in the office of the president; most important decisions need presidential approval. Furthermore, Mr Nazarbayev's divide and rule tactics cause uncertainty among the political elites."

• "The regime has reacted against growing dissent from within its ranks by stepping up harassment of its critics and clamping down on the independent media."

• "The 'Kazakhgate' scandal -- involving the alleged diversion of oil revenue into personal offshore accounts -- is of particular concern, since it could undermine support for the president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, and trigger a struggle for the succession."

• Under President Nazarbayev "corrupt practices have flourished… (and he) has granted himself immunity from prosecution in the unlikely event that he retires or is ousted."

• "Political parties do not play an important role in Kazakhstan. Key decisions are taken by the president and his advisors. Parliamentary parties are little more than government-sponsored pressure groups."

CAVIAR EMPTOR -- Unless Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Russia can show progress in the next three months on protecting the world's last great population of sturgeon, they will be slapped with a ban on caviar exports, the U.N.'s wildlife protection agency warned, reports the New York Times. Environmental groups accuse the four countries of being unwilling or unable to curb poaching or take other measures to live up to their 2001 agreement 2001 to protect the beluga, stellate and Russian sturgeon, the sources of nearly all the world's caviar. http://query.nytimes.com/mem/tnt.html?tntget=2004/03/16/business/16giffen.html&tntemail0

OIL MAN'S GUSHER OF TROUBLE -- The man accused of paying $78 million in bribes to President Nursultan Nazarbayev and other top Kazakh officials has been slapped with a new six-count indictment. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have charged oil consultant James Giffen with filing false tax returns that omitted $2 million in income, reports Bloomberg News. He's also accused of conspiring with an unidentified colleague to evade baxes by reporting only half of his $800,000 bonus. He was indicted last year for violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act by funneling more than $78 million from Western oil companies to the Kazakh dictator and others close to him in exchange for drilling and pipeline rights. The latest charges include conspiracy to defraud the U.S., obstructing the enforcement of the revenue laws and four counts of filing tax returns, according to Dow Jones Newswires. http://www.bloomberg.com/, http://www.djnewswires.com/

For the full stories, see the web citations above or contact us at News@Kazakhstan21.org or see VOD Archives [http://iicas.org/english/enlibrary/libr_16_03_01kp.htm]. The Kazakhstan 21st Century Foundation promotes democracy and human rights in Kazakhstan through public affairs and educational programs in the United States and Europe. This material is distributed by Kazakhstan 21st Century Foundation.

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