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OSCE
Office for Democratic Institutions
and Human Rights
REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
10 and 24 OCTOBER 1999
FINAL REPORT |
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7 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
7.1 Results of Elections Based on the
Party List
For the first time, a nationwide
constituency for political parties was introduced in the election system. However, only 10
of the Majilis’ 77 seats (or 13%) were filled through party lists. Opposition parties,
in particular, claimed that this share of the vote would function as a litmus test for the
political affiliation of the Kazakhstani electorate, and hence was particularly vulnerable
to manipulation.
Table of Nationwide Party List
Results
| Party: |
Votes |
%
|
Seats |
Oblasts**
Won |
2nd
in
Oblast |
Communist
Party |
932,549 |
17,75 |
2 |
2 |
11 |
Agrarian
Party |
663,351 |
12,63 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
OTAN |
1,622,895 |
30,89 |
4 |
12 |
3 |
People’s
Congress |
148,776 |
2,83 |
- |
- |
- |
Renaissance
Party |
103,328 |
1,97 |
- |
- |
- |
Azamat |
240,132 |
4,57 |
- |
- |
1 |
Alash |
144,945 |
2,76 |
- |
- |
- |
Party of
Labor |
72,721 |
1,38 |
- |
- |
- |
Civil Party |
590,184 |
11,23 |
2 |
1 |
- |
Subtotal |
4,518,881 |
|
|
|
|
Against all |
373,440 |
7,11 |
|
|
|
Invalid |
361,543 |
6,90 |
|
|
|
Total
(estimated) |
5,253,864 |
100,00 |
10 |
16 |
16 |
Parties
represented in the new Majilis |
3,808,979 |
72,50 |
10 |
16 |
15 |
Orientation
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pro-governmental |
2,979,758 |
56,71 |
8 |
14 |
4 |
“Constructive”
opposition |
606,574 |
11,55 |
- |
- |
1 |
“Hard”
opposition |
932,549 |
17,75 |
2 |
2 |
11 |
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* Source: Website of the Central Election Commission of
Kazakhstan.
** Including the cities of Almaty and Astana.
The following observations can be made:
- With only 57% of the total votes, the pro-governmental parties received 80% of party
seats in parliament.
- 72,5% of the voters find “their” party represented in Parliament (low
fragmentation).
- Of those parties that did not receive 7% of the vote nationwide, only Azamat with 14,95%
in Almaty city and the nationalist party Alash with 9,01% in Kyzylorda were able to pass
the 7% barrier at least in one Oblast. Azamat has its second best result (6,7%) in Astana.
- There are no turnout figures available. However, the number of votes cast for the party
lists differs only slightly from the number of votes cast for the single member districts.
For those, the turnout has been officially announced to be 62,6%.
From this brief analysis one can conclude
that:
- the Kazakhstani voters concentrated their votes on four significant parties;
- only the Communist Party plays as a significant role as an opposition force;
- although some regional differences can be found, one cannot discern particular regional
parties.
Due to the limited number of EOM observers, it was not possible to
conduct a parallel count or to countercheck the published results. However, the figures
for Aktyubinsk Oblast warrant some comments because there are literally no “Against all”
or invalid votes (less than 1%). In all other districts they equal at least 7%. The
nationwide share of the “Against All” votes plus invalid ballots is 14%. Highest
shares are 20.8% and 20.9% in Karaganda and Kostanai Oblasts.
7.2 Results from the First Round Single
Mandate Races
According to official results, in 20 of
the 67 single member districts a candidate received more than 50% of the votes cast and
consequently was elected in the first round.
An analysis of those candidates elected or leading after 10 October
indicates the level of association between these winning candidates and existing executive
and state authorities. Of the twenty candidates surpassing the 50% margin in the first
round, 6 were incumbent deputies, a further 4 were either Akims or Deputy Akims, and the
remainder, except for the one opposition candidate elected, had roles affiliated with the
State. Of the 20 deputies elected in the first round, 12 were formally nominated by the
following pro-governmental political parties:
- OTAN (4 candidates)
- Civil Party (7 candidates)
- Agrarian Party (1 candidate).
7.3 Results for the Second Round,
October 24
Three of the 47 second-round elections
were declared invalid.( The
three are: Kurmangazy District #16, Atyrau Region; Zhambyl District #24, Zhambyl Region;
and Abai District #53, South Kazakhstan Region)
In a number of districts, the results of the run-offs were very close. In 13
cases, even the winning candidate failed to get 50% of the total votes. In 25 of the 44
districts, the winner had less than 55%. Only in one district did the elected deputy get
more than 70%.
Of the 20 OTAN candidates who participated in the second round, 16 were
victorious, 3 were defeated, and 1 ran in one of the districts declared invalid.
OTAN candidates were behind in 6 races according to their first round results, but were
winners in 3 of districts in the second round. Of the 7 Civil Party candidates competing
in the second round, 3 were victorious. Of the opposition candidates running in the second
round, none was elected.
7.4 Final Results
Table of Political Make up of the
Majilis
Affiliation |
of Deputies
|
Single Member Districts |
Party List
|
Totals
|
OTAN |
20
|
4
|
24
|
Civil Party |
9
|
2
|
11
|
Communist
Party |
1
|
2
|
3
|
Agrarian |
1
|
2
|
3
|
RNPK |
1
|
|
1
|
People's
Cooperative |
1
|
|
1
|
Business |
10
|
|
10
|
Gov't.
Associated |
20
|
|
20
|
Other/Unknown |
4
|
|
4
|
Total |
67 |
|
77
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The degree of plurality, which positively
characterized the registered candidates, is not reflected in the composition of the new
parliament. As a general trend, the EOM noted a strong correlation between the dominant
pro-presidential parties and candidates closely associated with the existing political and
economic hierarchy. This is not surprising in itself, but must be seen in light of
concerns expressed by the EOM regarding interference by executive authorities in the
electoral process, particularly at the level of the Akimat.
Profile of Elected Members of the
Majilis
| Number
elected |
Nationality |
Gender |
Incumbents |
Nominated by |
| 77 |
Kazakh– 58 (75%) Russian-19
(25%) |
M – 69 (90%) F – 8 (10%) |
Ran - 46
(69%)
Won – 18 (39%)
Lost – 28 (61%)
Lost in the first round – 26 (57%) |
Political
parties - 43 (56%)
Trade unions + public associations – 8 (10%)
Self-nominated - 26 (34%) |
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Statistics provided by the CEC show that
46 (60%) of the 77 deputies elected to the Majilis following the second round are either
incumbent deputies or employed directly by the state, local authorities, or law
enforcement bodies. The next largest non-state group was employees of commercial
enterprises with 26% of all elected candidates. While only 39% of incumbent Majilis
deputies were re-elected, more than 50% of Akimat employees who ran as candidates were
elected. For candidates from other levels of government administration, be it national
agencies, ministries or state enterprises, the figures are consistently much lower. The
only two Akims to win in the first round, both Civil Party candidates, also had amongst
the highest proportions of winning votes, both over 65%, and much higher than average
turnout figures. These high turnouts corresponded with a very high proportion of ballots
cast against either all candidates or found to be invalid (19% and 10% when the two types
of ballot were added together). The average proportion of ballots falling into one or the
other category after the first round was 8%.
The ethnic distribution of candidates presented some interesting
conundrums: ethnic Russians were underrepresented in the Majilis candidates (17%) in
comparison to the preliminary census figures released this year. In that document,
ethnic Kazakhs made up 53.4% of the population and ethnic Russians 30%. However, following
the second round, 25% of the candidates elected to the lower chamber of the parliament are
ethnic Russian, with the balance ethnic Kazakh. This indicates a higher proportion of
ethnic Russian candidates having the support amongst the politically dominant
pro-presidential parties than would have been suggested by their profile among the
candidates. |
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