"Geopolitical Setting"

Pipeline via Afghanistan may end fighting in Central Asia
Attacks would end "in the twinkling of an eye"
Ekspress-K, 30 September 2000

Attacks by militants in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan would end "in the twinkling of an eye" if Afghanistan were proposed as a route for a Caspian oil pipeline through Central Asia to Pakistan and then Iran, Valeriy Kirichenko wrote in the 21st September issue of `Ekspress-K'. He said even "the staunchest advocates of `true Islam'" would be unable to resist the huge sums to be had from oil transportation, far greater than the profits from drug trafficking or the slave trade. The following are excerpts from the newspaper report, which was headlined "To avoid `a fat victory'":

The clear sunny days are ending. The passes will soon be covered with snow and [military] actions will cease all by themselves in the mountains in the countries bordering on Kazakhstan. And the question as to how long is irrelevant here for everyone knows the answer: until the next warm season.

We consider the events in the "hot" areas of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to be war, but to be precise, they should be called a reconnaissance battle. The war will begin later, when the Taleban have finally put down [Defence Minister under ousted President Borhannodin Rabbani] Ahmad Shah Masud's supporters and they [Taleban] revert their blazing gaze to the north, when, having changed patrol groups, powerful columns of well-armed and well-trained militants will move along reconnoitred corridors.

Such a scenario is quite probable, for the battles in Central Asia unfortunately are the manifestation of the global activization of religious extremism rather than the single "volley" of a seat of war, as we would like to think. The synchronized actions by Islamic fanatics in different parts of the planet - in the Hindu Kush, in the Caucasus, on the islands of the Philippines' archipelago and in a number of districts of continental Africa support this assumption. The thought involuntarily arises that their actions are carefully coordinated.

And so far the Taleban have captured one of the last outposts of their rivals - the town of Taloqan [northeastern Afghanistan] and are a short way off establishing full control over the whole of Afghanistan...

Astana seems to understand as well that a lean peace is better than a fat victory. For the political leadership of the country most frequently supplements with diplomatic steps the reinforcement of military formation, raising the financing of the national armed forces and holding such significant actions as the Centrasbat-2000 military exercise that ended recently...

Obviously, substantial approaches and decisions are needed to resolve the Afghan situation, and precisely those recently proposed by Russian analysts - economic ones.

The problem is that modern Kabul rejects involvement in any economic activity in principle. Every year Afghanistan produces up to 3,000 t of raw opium, which when processed, is delivered to tens of countries. Add to this such highly profitable "sectors" as the weapons and slave trade and you will understand that the Taleban have plenty of money to maintain their armed forces, whilst they would like to spit on the needs of the population of Afghanistan from the highest minaret in Kabul.

But there is, nonetheless, a sphere promising such huge amounts of money which can overshadow drug profits and which even the staunchest advocates of "true Islam" will unlikely be able to resist. What is at issue is a pipeline from Central Asia through Afghanistan to Pakistan and then to Iran.

Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan Boris Shikhmyradov visited Kabul on a peace mission in early September. The press covered inadequately the aim and results of this visit. What he spoke with the Taleban's fathers about was not reported. However, many analysts think that the talks between the Turkmen emissary and the host side was about building a main pipeline to enable the export of Turkmen oil far inside the Asian region. If this is really so (and all the "attendant" circumstances speak in favour of this conclusion), Kazakhstan may well "get mixed up in" the project being drawn up, even if just by way of declaration, in diplomatic parlance.

Such a position would be even more reasonable as great amounts of oil have been found at the eastern Kashagan [oil field, Kazakhstan ] and issues of its transportation should be taken care of in good time. At any rate, it would not be superfluous to add "an Afghan option" to the package of Russian, Turkish and Chinese Caspian Sea oil routes. Military opposition in Central Asia will begin to subside in the twinkling of an eye.

Ekspress-K, 30 September 2000