Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise
Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise
Interview with Martha Brill Olcott Author, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment
A decade ago few Westerners had heard of Kazakhstan, the second largest
of the Soviet republics. After independence in 1991, Kazakhstan started to appear in the
news. The country's vast size, its oil and gas, and its pivotal location in Central Asia,
make it of strategic importance to the United States, Western allies and Kazakhstan's
neighbors: China and Russia.
South Bend, Ind.: I have not read your book but I want to ask
what is the "unfulfilled promise" in Kazakhstan? Do you think that any other
Central Asian republic has performed up to any promise or expectation? Where do you see
the region going?
Martha Brill Olcott: I choose the title Unfulfilled Promise
because I believe that Kazakhstan has the capacity to become a pluralistic society with a
market economy. In fact, the Kazakh government was taking much more determined steps in
the direction of democratic political in the first years of independence, and then in the
mid-1990s, reversed course and began to consolidate power in the Presidency, in the person
of the President and in his family. Thus, although the government continues to work toward
implementing market reforms, many of these efforts are impeded from within, by the very
nature of the political system that is being implemented.
Almaty, Kazakhstan: Why does the U.S., a country that is well
known for it's democratic traditions and leadership, support corrupted Kazakhstani
officials? Thank you.
Martha Brill Olcott: That is a good, but a difficult question to
answer. Certainly, the US has interest in insuring that Kazakhstan's vast oil reserves are
developed, and are piped to market on a dependable route. This is impossible if the US
government does not do business with Kazakhstan's government. But I think that there is
also a perception on the part of at least some US officials, that by continuing to engage
with the Kazakh government things could improve for the population, if not immediately,
then within a generation.
Personally, I think that the US government could be tougher on
pressuring the Kazakh government to not just endorse, but also to implement political
reforms that would make the country more democratic.
Moreover, I argue in my book that the US had even more leverage in the
mid-1990s, and did not use it effectively.
Chicago, Ill.: My wife and I are thinking of going for our next
vacation to some place new. We are also interested in history, culture of other people. Do
you think we should try Kazakhstan?
Martha Brill Olcott: If you are the outdoor type, like mountain
climbing, white water rafting, or winter skiing, and don't mind a very long plane flight
to get to your vacation spot, you might want to give Kazakhstan a try. There are very good
hotels and restaurants now in the country's former capital of Almaty
Mt. Lebanon, Pa.: Is Kazakhstan reaping any of the harvest of
"reward bucks" for aiding the U.S. in the war in Afghanistan or the larger war
on global Islamic terrorism? If not, are they happy to remain out of the focus of the
"nation building" going on with their neighbors far to the south? For that
matter, how is their own nation building going now that Russia isn't running [ruining]
their day-to-day affairs? Finally, what's their U.S. happiness factor on a scale of 1 to
10? That is, how are relations between Astana and D.C.? Thanks much.
Martha Brill Olcott: The US has been providing increased
bilateral security assistance to all the states of Central Asia over the last few years,
and Kazakhstan too has been a beneficiary. But it is not a frontline state, nor currently
the site of a US base, so military cooperation between the US and Kazakhstan has not
increased as much as US-Uzbek or Us-Kyrgyz assistance.
Springfield, Va.: Dr. Olcott,
I am a historian researching the U.S.-Kazakhstan Cooperative Threat
Reduction effort throughout the 1990s to eliminate the START Treaty nuclear weapons and
systems.
President Nazarbayev recently claimed credit for the success of this
important bilateral program. Yet Judith Miller in her new book, "Germs," gives
the credit to American embassy officials and certain Kazakhanstani security officers who
carried out Project Sapphire. Clearly, that project was significant in proving the
credibility of the U.S. Government to assist Kazakhstan in removing and reducing its
weapons of mass destruction. What is your opinion of this major project?
Martha Brill Olcott: Without the support of Kazakhstan's
President Nursultan Nazarbayev, this very important project would not have been able to
move forward.
Almas K. Astana, Kazakhstan: Dear Martha Brill Olcott, I read
the introduction of your book, but not the book. In my view you wrote this book in strong
condemnation. Despite having small problems we reached sharp development of our country.
Almost everybody trusts our president and believes him, either I am, because he did a lot
for the development. Maybe we are not so democratic, but it'll change in time, we are only
10 years old! (U.S. spent more thatn two centuries to reach and develop the democracy that
it has today). Additionally our country is the first in the CIS countries in economy and
reforms.
Martha Brill Olcott: I am pleased that people in Kazakhstan are
reading my book, even if only the introduction. I don't think that my book is a strong
condemnation of Kazakhstan at all, and I think that if you are able to get a copy and read
it then you might revise your opinion. The book makes it clear that Kazakhstan has made
enormous strides over the past decade, but that in the last few years the government has
taken a number of political decisions that are likely to warp the developmental process as
it moves forward. As someone who has spent a lifetime studying Kazakhstan and its people
this makes me very sad. Because the country has enormous human and economic potential, and
initially it looked like independence would give the Kazakhs the opportunity to realize
this more quickly than is actually proving to be the case.
As to the argument that Kazakhstan is only 10 years old, and it took
the US 200 years to develop its democracy---I recommend that you go back on Carnegie's
website and read a policy brief that I wrote last summer on "Revisiting the 12 Myths
of Central Asia". One of my myths is the excuse of youth. Kazakhstan could have
developed a democracy, and could still develop a democracy, if only its rulers would give
the population the necessary breathing room.
Fairfax, Va.: We heard horror stories about the treatment of
women under the Taliban. What do you think of the role of women in Kazakhstan's developing
society including the business sector?
Martha Brill Olcott: Women in traditional Kazakh society always
had an important (although circumscribed)role, and this made the integration of women
easier under the Soviet system. As a result when Kazakhstan became independent there were
a number of women in the ranks of senior leadership in every sector of public life. The
cause of female advancement has not been a particular priority of the Kazakh regime, but
it remains at least a formal goal, and women are active in every sector of the new Kazakh
economy, and are particularly active in the small enterprise sector.
Brighton, U.K.: Can you evaluate the implications of the Kazakh
treasury's recent revelations that there are accounts with $1 billion in Switzerland under
Nazarbayev's name. (But really everything is clean of course.) What relations does this
have to the ongoing international investigation into high level corruption in Kazakhstan?
Martha Brill Olcott: My answer to your question is purely
speculative, but it is hard to imagine that the two events are not related. The people in
Kazakhstan are aware that charges had been made of official corruption tied to the
President and his family, and the Kazakh government had to provide some sort of answer.
I have no way of knowing whether ordinary Kazakhs believe that the
recent revelations are "the truth and the whole truth." But I don't think that
most foreign observers of Kazakh government do.
Austin, Tex.: Do you think that the Kazakh people are being
helped by the current Peace Corps efforts?
Martha Brill Olcott: yes
Washington, D.C.: Hi. I've been interested in the region of
Central Asia for a while now and have a couple of questions:
Is there still martial law and curfew restrictions in the cities of
southern Kazakhstan? I understand that a year or so ago this was the case in Taraz
(Dzambul).
Do you think that the predominately Russian areas in the north might
one day join Russia? Is there a hint of a separatist movement on the Russian border?
Thanks.
Martha Brill Olcott: I know that 2 years ago, there was such a
curfew in Taraz,at the time of a hunger strike at the local phosphorous plant but it seems
to have been lifted
As to the possibility of northern Kazakhstan joining up with Russia, as
I write in the book, I think that the likelihood of this has diminished with time.
Madison, Wis.: I am wondering what kind of sources do you use in
judging upon many politically charged issues? Does you exlusively rely on a few but very
vocal NGO/bussiness representatives in Kazakhstan, or on Russian media? As a scholar, did
you ever feel that you had to put some sort of distance between the American government's
interests and your writings?
Martha Brill Olcott: I try to use as wide a variety of sources
as possible, including interviews with Kazakh government officials as well as opposition,
people active in the business community in Kazakhstan (Kazakhs as well as foreigners),
people active in the international financial community. I also think that it is important
for a scholar to distance himself or herself from their own (and their subject's)
government in their writing.
Arlington, Va.: What are the implications due to the lack of
cohesivness between ethnic Kazakhs on the future conflicts in the country? What kind of
development do you think the country needs for the creation of multi-ethnically diverse
society? How should Kazakhstanis remember their Soviet history?
Martha Brill Olcott: These are themes that I explore at length
in the book, which talks about the forces bringing the people of Kazakhstan together and
those driving them apart. The challenge of maintaining cohesiveness is one which any new
state must meet, and Kazakhstan has done much better than many people thought, as I detail
in the book. Personally I believe that poverty much more than ethnicity will be at the
root of any future social unrest in Kazakhstan, a point I also make at length in the book.
As to the Soviet history, it is part of the past, which needs to be remembered, especially
since it is still a part of the the consciousness of over half the Kazakh population.
Washington, D.C. : Could you comment on the arrests of Mukhtar
Abliyazov and former Pavlodar Oblast Governor Ghalymzhan Zhaqiyanov, and why they have
been treated so harshly when many other members of the opposition have been left
unbothered. Is it because these two have established links with former Kazakh PM
Kazhegeldin? Is President Nazarbayev "cleaning house" perhaps in preparation for
stepping down and annointing/appointing a successor?
Martha Brill Olcott: At the time that I wrote the book a group
of young economic reformers, including the two former officials cited broke with the
President and established a movement called Democratic Choice, whose goal was to increase
political and economic transparency. I think that these reformers realized that without
this the course of economic reform in the country would be very troubled, as independent
entrepreneurs would have great difficulty achieving unchallenged economic advancement. I
also wrote in the book, that Nazarbayev was at a decisive time in his administration, and
that he either had to move toward greater transparency and reform or further consolidate
power in the hands of his family (in advance of a transfer of power in the next several
years). It seems like he has chosen the latter.
Alexandria, Va. : What is going on with the Saudi-funded
extremist Islamic schools in Kazakhstan? Has the government shut them down? Should it?
Martha Brill Olcott: Islamic fundamentalism is less of a problem
in Kazakhstan than in neighboring Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan, although Saudi (and Turkish)
funded religious schools have been opened in many communities. The government's response
is to try to distinguish between extremist and traditional Islam, barring the former and
allowing the latter. The distinction is sometimes quite difficult, and sometimes peaceful
believers are mistakenly barred. But there has not been the kind of crackdown in
Kazakhstan that there has been in Uzbekistan.
Houston, Tex. : Kazakhstan seems to be the leader in Central
Asia in terms of reforming it's society and economy. That was confirmed by the U.S. which
recently gave Kazakhstan a market economy status. Is the U.S. planning to ensure that
similar reforms spread through the other nations of Central Asia which seem to be lagging
behind?
Martha Brill Olcott: The US has been pushing all the Central
Asian countries toward market reforms, and now is focusing its attention on Uzbekistan,
which has promised to make its currency convertible this summer, an important first step.
Market economy status is a critical step for Kazakhstan if the country
is to join the WTO, something that Kyrgyzstan has already done.
New Haven, Conn. : What role (if any) do you think Western oil
companies would play a succession struggle in Kazakhstan?
Martha Brill Olcott: I think that the role of the US oil
companies in a succession struggle is indirect at best, as their needs are to be able to
work successfully with any regime that comes to power.
The US government though can play a much more active and partisan role,
pressuring the Nazarbayev regime to greatly enhance the sphere of activity available to
opposition groups, so that there can be an election which has some legitimacy as the basis
of the transfer of power.
Otherwise, the President is likely to try and transfer power to a
favored daughter or son-in-law, or some other close associate. I describe a number of
possible scenarios in my book.
Brighton, U.K. : I know Kazakhstan is your focus, but Kyrgyzstan
is right nearby. I am sure you are aware of the recent events in Aksy. The Kyrgyz
government has changed tacks on spinning this event a number of times. Can you see any
long term implications? Or perhaps the government's monopolization of the press is paying
dividends now that people don't have access to any information other than the official
explanations.
Martha Brill Olcott: I watch the situation in Kyrgyzstan very
closely, and I am disturbed that at the very time that the US is commiting itself to
maintain a large military base for an indefinite period in the country, the Kyrgyz
government is making it harder for independent and opposition groups to function.
This is a time when the US and the Europeans have the maximum amount of
leverage, and could be using it more effectively.
Martha Brill Olcott: I really wish that I could have answered
all the many interesting and important questions that I received, but unfortunately time
was limited. Some of the answers are found in my book, others in some of my additional
writings which are posted (or cited) on the Carnegie Endowment (CEIP.org) website.
But I thank everyone for their interest and for writing in.
http://discuss.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/zforum/02/world_olcott041802.htm
About the Book
At the outset of independence 10 years ago, Kazakhstan's leaders
promised that the country's rich natural resources, with oil and gas reserves among the
largest in the world, would soon bring economic prosperity, and it appeared that democracy
was beginning to take hold in this newly independent state. A decade later, economic
reform is mired in widespread corruption. A regime that flirted with democracy is now
laying the foundation for family-based, authoritarian rule. This book examines the
development of this ethnically diverse and strategically vital nation. Kazakhstan:
Unfulfilled Promise also looks at shortcomings of U.S. policy in the region and at the
future challenges that Kazakhstan will pose to the United States and international
institutions.
About the Author
Martha Brill Olcott is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endoment for
International Peace and is an expert on Central Asia and issues of global energy and
security and interethnic relations in Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union.
Washingtonian magazine recently included her in its list of "71 People the President
Should Listen To" about the war on terrorism.
"For years anyone interested in Kazakhstan has had no trouble
picking the very best book on the subject: The Kazakhs by Martha Olcott. Now, at last,
there's a real rival: shrewd and sensitive to the deep problems of post-Soviet politics,
and—of course!—by Martha Olcott."
—Stephen Sestanovich, former Ambassador at Large and Special
Advisor to the Secretary of State
"Olcott gives us the best up-to-date account of a transition to
modernity that appears to have lost its way."
—Ronald Grigor Suny, University of Chicago
"A bible for understanding the country, written by a preeminent
scholar."
—William Courtney, former Ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia
http://www.ceip.org/files/Publications/Kazakhstan.asp?from=pubdate
“Washington Post Online”, April 18, 2002
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