Russia and China

Jingdong Yuan

When President Vladimir Putin of Russia arrives in China on Sunday, he is expected to reassure his hosts that the Chinese-Russian strategic partnership remains valid despite major changes in Moscow's foreign policy in the past year. The visit to China 10 years ago by President Boris Yeltsin marked the start of a warming bilateral relationship; Putin aims to sustain it, despite divergent strategic interests and foreign policy priorities.

Under Yeltsin, there were regular summit meetings and official exchanges with China. There was also substantive defense cooperation. Common stands were taken on a range of international and regional issues, including support for the role of the United Nations Security Council and opposition to U.S. missile defenses. Both countries said that they wanted to promote a multipolar world.

Since Putin came to office almost three years ago, Russia has changed its foreign policy, in particular its relationship with the United States, to reflect a realistic assessment of Russia's national interests, among them the need to reform and modernize its economy while limiting defense spending.

As a result, Moscow has appeared to accommodate the often unilateralist foreign policy of the Bush administration, most recently its threat to use force unless Iraq disarms. Putin's government has accepted U.S. abrogation of the ABM Treaty, its development of missile defenses, the expansion of NATO and the emerging American military doctrine of preemption - developments that Russia not long ago opposed. .

Many analysts have suggested that such major adjustments in Russia's foreign policy undermine the Chinese-Russian strategic partnership. Moreover, unresolved issues between the two countries remain and new ones are emerging. There is a lingering dispute over the ownership of a few critical river islands along their porous border. Two-way trade remains at $10 billion, well below the $20 billion set as a target by Yeltsin. Russians, especially in the thinly populated Far East, fear that uncontrolled and illegal Chinese immigration will swamp them. .A centerpiece of the Chinese-Russian entente - the regional arrangement linking China, Russia and a group of Central Asian states known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization - is under strain. Russia's decision to move closer to the United States after the Sept. 11 attacks was critical in prompting some Central Asian members of the organization to allow American forces to be stationed on their territory.

Such developments worry China. But neither Moscow nor Beijing is willing to risk confronting Washington and sacrificing their core interests. Russia's new strategic relationship with America gives it continued geostrategic relevance while protecting Russia's economic revival and internal stability. China has equally high stakes in maintaining a stable bilateral relationship with the United States so that it can focus on economic growth and deal with the Taiwan issue.

Still, Beijing and Moscow share common interests in buttressing the UN Security Council, seeking the peaceful settlement of international disputes and preventing the spread of weapons to outer space. China and Russia could strengthen the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by using economic development programs and the energy supplies of Central Asia to promote regional ties. They could intensify cooperation on security issues, including the prevention of terrorism.

China could expand cooperation with Russia in energy development, as well as in nuclear technology and aerospace programs. This would help to increase two-way trade.

Despite recent changes in their strategic partnership, relations between Russia and China remain promising and should be nurtured by both sides.

The writer, a specialist on China and Northeast Asia security at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.

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