Kazakhstan has become the first country in the
CIS to feel the impact of the crisis in liquidity on the world market. Between August 1
and 8, the interest rate on interbank credit jumped 1.8 percent, the Kazakh tenge began to
wobble and capital began to flow out of the country. The main causes of the problem are
the huge foreign debts of Kazakh banks and the increasingly lopsided trade balance.
Ukraine is facing the same situation with its trade balance, and Russia can expect the
same in two years.
Kazakh banks began to experience problems with liquidity simultaneously
with the global credit crisis caused by the defaults on the American subprime mortgage
market. Unlike Russian and Ukrainian banks, which guarantee their creditworthiness with
public deposits, Kazakh banks' creditworthiness is based on foreign loans. By the end of
the first quarter of the year, the country's foreign debt in the private sector was
equivalent to 95.7 percent of the GDP. Within the country, the bank credits account for
the high demand. In real terms, credit to individuals rose by 122 percent in the year
ending July 2007.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan acknowledges that the tenge is falling
due to the outflow of capital. On Wednesday, the tenge traded for 124.53/$, compared to
121/$ in June. Imports are increasing and the National Bank will increase the amount of
mandatory reserves for banks from 8 percent to 10 percent at the end of the month.
Ukraine's national bank will institute new rules on October 19 that
prohibit resident companies from taking out foreign credit at a rate higher than LIBOR+2%.
Gazprom also felt the liquidity crisis last week when
it failed to place fully its new issue of securities.
All the
Article in Russian as of Aug. 10, 2007
http://www.kommersant.com/p794340/finance_macroeconomics/ |
