Kazakh election flaws

Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan triumphed in Sunday's presidential elections, securing a further seven years in office on top of the 14 he has already served. He won 91 per cent of the vote, a bit short of 1991's 99 per cent but well ahead of the 80 per cent he scored in the last poll in 1999.

These Soviet-style numbers have little to do with democracy and everything to do with consolidating the power of the authoritarian Mr Nazarbayev. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which observed the vote, denounced the polls as flawed and listed many faults, notably the intimidation and detention of opposition campaigners.

Mr Nazarbayev congratulated himself for stopping the former Soviet Union's run of popular revolts which saw veteran leaders deposed in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. This time the authorities won, as they did in the recent Azeri parliamentary polls. Not surprisingly, the Kazakh result was warmly welcomed by the Kremlin, which is desperate to ensure a continuity of power when President Vladimir Putin is due to step down in 2008.

For the west, there is a painful dilemma. Oil-rich Kazakhstan is a vital energy supplier, a stable ally in the war on terror and a bastion of economic progress in a poor region. But it is is profoundly undemocratic. While Mr Nazarbayev has tolerated a modicum of activity by opposition groups, independent journalists and non-government organisations, this election has proved that when it comes to the crunch he brooks no challenges. He ignored the pressure from the west to give the opposition a chance. A 70:30 result would have given Mr Nazarbayev's friends in the west the opportunity to argue that there was political progress. But this was not enough for Mr Nazarbayev. He wanted to prove he was boss - presumably to ensure the polls did not give the opposition even a hint of encouragement.

So, what should the US and the European Union do next? The world needs Kazakhstan's oil and gas just as much as Kazakhstan needs to export it. So there should be no question of applying economic pressure. It would in any case be foolish to slow economic development in an impoverished region.

But Mr Nazarbayev wants more than money, corrupt though his regime is. He seeks recognition. He delights in the prospect that Kazakhstan is due to assume the OSCE's rotating chairmanship in 2009. It is not too late for the OSCE to reconsider. Better an empty seat in the chairman's office than have it occupied by a representative of a president who cares little for the OSCE's values. Mr Nazarbayev often argues that it took western countries centuries to become democracies and that in 15 years Kazakhstan has come a long way. That is true, but a 91 per cent election victory cancels out most of the progress. Even by local standards, this was a defeat for democracy.

http://news.ft.com

“The Financial Times”, December 6, 2005

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