Kazakhstan: Talking tough
Paul Sampson, Aktau
27 May 2005 - Celebrations were in order
in Kazakhstan this week when President Nursultan Nazarbaev launched the Astana, the
country's first-ever oil tanker, on its maiden voyage from Aktau to Azerbaijan to arrive
in time for the May 25 opening of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline (see p10). In
a carefully stage-managed event, the Astana was anchored side-by-side with Azerbaijan's
Haidar Aliev, before both vessels sailed westwards across the Caspian Sea to Baku, the
Azeri capital.
State shipping firm Kazmortransflot should
take delivery of a second 12,000-ton tanker, the Almaty, this July and Nazarbaev talked at
the ceremony of the important role the port will play in providing Caspian crude for BTC.
The BP-led BTC partners are actively seeking out Kazakh barrels: some could come from the
Chevron-operated Tengizchevroil joint venture and some from the giant offshore Kashagan
project due on stream in 2007-08, courtesy of Eni, Total and ConocoPhillips, which have
equity in both projects.
Other Western majors are finding it harder
to break into the Kazakh offshore. Royal Dutch/Shell and Repsol YPF, among others, say
tough terms prevent them signing long-term production sharing agreements. That reflects
the generally tougher approach of the Kazakh authorities, who want Western firms to invest
more in local infrastructure and are threatening them with large fines for failing to
adhere to environmental regulations.
Companies' biggest bugbears are the tax
regime and the absence of a proper fiscal framework. The tax legislation was introduced in
2002 and, despite amendments, returns are still too low, a Western oil executive
complains: it offers an internal rate of return of just 5%, when most firms require at
least 15%. It entitles the government to 5%-10% of oil extracted during the cost recovery
period and 40% during the payback period, which companies say is too much, and includes
"triggers" determining the government's share of profit oil and a royalty on
underground construction, which is assumed to include the construction of pipelines and
storage facilities. A further complication is a law entitling state Kazmunaigas (KMG) to
50% of any offshore PSA. It is assumed, but not stated, that KMG's costs will be carried
by the other partners at least during the exploration phase.
Companies say the terms are so unpalatable
that some suspect the government is secretly trying to avoid signing PSAs. One theory is
that, with presidential elections due in the next year or so, the authorities --
particularly Nazarbaev -- don't want to be seen doing Western firms any favors. Another is
that terms will be improved gradually until someone signs on the dotted line. "The
Kazakhs are waiting for one company to bite and for the others to follow suit," an
Almaty-based diplomat says.
But the most likely explanation is that,
with the giant Kashagan field due on stream in the next few years and negotiations
progressing with Russian companies on developing four previously disputed fields in the
North Caspian -- Kurmangazy, Tsentralny, Khavlinskoye and Tyub-Karagan -- the Kazakhs are
in no hurry to sign deals with Westerners. KMG, which has 50% of all four North Caspian
blocks, is now getting down to work at Kashagan, after buying half of BG's 16.67% stake
following protracted negotiations with the UK company and other Kashagan partners.
Shell has been discussing possible
operatorship of the Nursultan Block in the South Caspian, which would have the port of
Kuryk, the site of a planned new oil export terminal, as its onshore base (EC May20,p10).
Repsol wants to develop Dukhan in the Central Caspian. Nelson Resources, a Toronto- and
London-listed independent with mostly Kazakh shareholders, is talking to KMG about
exercising its option for a 25% interest in the South Zhambai and South Zaburunye Blocks
in the North Caspian. A South Korean consortium led by Korea National Oil Corp. recently
signed a heads of agreement with KMG to develop the Zhambyl Block.
Oman Oil Co. is meanwhile negotiating for
Zhemchuzhina, an extension of the Kalamkas-B field in the Central Caspian. The company, a
vehicle for the Omani government, was given exclusive rights to two offshore blocks in the
early 1990s. An apparent breakthrough occurred earlier this year when the Omanis agreed to
pay a $15 million signature bonus and bring in KMG as a minority partner. Oman chose Shell
to operate the block and carry KMG's share, sources say. But the parties are still
tussling over taxes, which leaves the Omanis, who say they were guaranteed returns of at
least 15%, with the option of going to arbitration.
Energy Compass, May 27, 2005 |