Sitting at Putin's G-8 table
Peter Lavelle
Scheduled to be chairman of the Group of 8 in 2006, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has publicly stated he has closely observed how Britain has used its
leading role this year to have other member countries address its agenda. This year the
issues are Africa and climate change, next year Putin is expected to promote stability in
Central Asia.
Leading up to the July 6-8 Gleneagles summit in Scotland, again there
have been calls to either suspend or expel Russia from the most exclusive club in the
world. Politicians from member countries, including Germany, Italy, Japan, the United
States and Canada, claim there are many reasons to question Russia's membership, ranging
from its lack of wealth in comparison to other members to claims Russia does not share the
same democratic and market values as the rest of the group.
Igor Shuvalov, an aide to Putin and Russia's representative to the G-8,
is aware of these criticisms and has acknowledged the recent break-up of Russia's largest
oil company Yukos and the imprisonment of its former head Mikhail Khodorkovsky has damaged
Russia reputation among G8 members.
"We will have to work hard to overcome the Yukos effect,"
Shuvalov said. "We will have to work for a long time, for years" to reinvigorate
the business climate and demonstrate to investors that Yukos was a "single
case."
At the same time, Shuvalov claims the G8 needs Russia as much as the
Russia needs the G8. Russia's per capita wealth does not even come close to poorest of the
other seven members of the group, but it does have what the G8 needs, as well as rest of
the world: oil and natural gas.
"The economic reasons of why we must be in the club are
obvious," Shuvalov said. "We will be increasing oil exports year by year, we are
prepared to guarantee stable energy supplies to our partners to secure their stable
development for decades ahead."
Russia is Europe's biggest exporter of oil and natural gas and the
world's second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia.
When Russia takes the lead of the G8 next year, energy will certainly
be on the agenda, but also efforts to promote stability in post-Soviet Central Asia. These
two issues are not only vitally important to Russia, but for the world community as well.
Given Britain's agenda this year Russia's future agenda may have a better chance of
success.
Putin is set to support British Prime Minister Tony Blair's
initiatives. African debt to Russia is not particularly large and the Kremlin began
forgiving the debt of some of the world's poorest countries years ago. On climate change,
Russia is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, Putin's role during this G-8 summit is
expected to a bit part at best.
For this year's summit, Russia's positions are clear and with the
majority. What Putin will probably be keenest to watch is statecraft in play. Given the
harsh criticisms directed at Russia over the past 18 months, the Kremlin will surely be
taking notes on how to conduct a successful summit and how to push its expect agenda next
year.
Putin's choice to promote stability in Central Asia is an issue all
members of the G8 can recognize as important. Some commentators see Putin's agenda as a
disingenuous cover in reaction to the recent peaceful revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, and
Kyrgyzstan. However, Putin's interest in the post-Soviet space is transparent: security
there creates security for Russia and protects energy supply routes.
Among the initiatives Putin might promote is international supervision
of economic aid to some of the poorest countries on its borders. According to Shuvalov,
"It's very important to let those poor countries, such as Moldova, develop. For
example, a poor Georgia would be a big danger for us." Combating the drugs trade in
Central Asia is also an issue that G8 can play a constructive role.
Promoting stability in Central Asia is crucial in the war on terrorism.
While the United States and Russia have military installations in many Central Asian
countries to counter terrorist threats, economic and other forms of aid can address many
of the root causes of terrorism possible in the first place.
All G8 members have an interest in promoting stability in Central Asia
because of the region's growing importance in supplying petroleum to world markets and as
an alternative to the volatile Middle East.
It remains to be seen if Blair can pull off a major success during the
Gleneagles summit. The odds are stacked against him -- the United States has its own
Africa policy and remains rigid in the face international concerns regarding global
warming.
Putin is surely watching carefully and most certainly will focus on an
agenda that all member of the G8 can agree upon next year. Given the growing importance of
and dangers in Central Asia, disagreeing with Putin's agenda will be difficult.
“The Washington Times”, June 30, 2005
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