Putin's constitutional coup?
Peter Lavelle
Moscow, Russia, Feb. 10 (UPI) -- Will Russian President Vladimir Putin
leave office after his second term expires in 2008 or remain in power in some other
official capacity? Russian media and high-profile spin-doctors this week have revisited
this very popular and intensely speculative topic called "Operation Successor."
It is unclear if the Kremlin really intends to change the constitution to assure Putin's
political future, but that has not stopped others from coming up with proposals for a
"constitutional coup."
Putin has been asked repeatedly if he intends to stay in power after his term in office
expires. He has, in turn, stated that he will respect the constitution in regards to
presidential term limits -- two consecutive four-year terms. However, many observers don't
find reassurance in Putin's words, which they say don't seem sincere.
Putin's words are interpreted as only respecting the constitution in its present form,
with many contending that the Kremlin may want to change the constitution, transforming
Russia from a "presidential regime" to a "parliamentary republic" --
with few doubting who will become the newly empowered prime minister under such an
arrangement.
There is ample evidence that reducing the powers of a strong presidency
may indeed develop along the lines mention above. Putin is on the record supporting the
development of a small number of large political parties to sit in the country's
Parliament. Recently passed electoral laws will clearly marginalize single-issue and
regional parties. Abolishing single-seat constituencies in the next Parliament and the
appointment of regional governors also promote the necessity of a small number of large
parties.
Russian media have quoted Sergei Shakhrai, chief-of staff at the Auditing Chamber and
author the present constitution, as saying his office is working on plans to create a
parliamentary republic and abolish direct popular election of the president. In his
arrangement, Parliament would not only would appoint the prime minister -- de facto head
of state -- but also determine who would be a merely symbolic president. For Shakhrai's
plans to come into effect, he has said, only a few lines to the constitution need to be
changed to make it necessary to convene a constitutional assembly. Kremlin sources have
distanced themselves from Shakhrai's public comments.
Controversial Russian spin-doctor Stanislav Belkovsky, with an impressive record when it
comes to predicting the future, claims to know the Kremlin's true intentions for
constitutional changes and is even offering his own blueprint, in competition to the
Kremlin's, to recast Russia political order. At a press conference, Belkovsky was quite
blunt in calling for an "uncrowned monarch" who would not be answerable to the
executive, legislative and judicial branches of power. However, at the same time, both
houses of Parliament would select this "uncrowned monarch."
Shakhrai and Belkovsky's plans are a dramatic departure from the
present. Both plans focus on the important role political parties must play to make either
plan viable. With all political parties relatively weak, changing the constitution may
prove to be easier than strengthening representatives of parliamentary rule.
The Kremlin's majority party in Parliament -- United Russia -- appears not to have much of
a future. Being forced to take the blame for street protests against unpopular social and
other welfare reforms, it appears unlikely to be returned as the majority in the next
parliamentary election in 2007. To transform Russia into a parliamentary republic, it has
its work cut out if it wants friendly and popular parties aligned with it.
United Russia may eventually -- maybe sooner rather than later depending how fast and
serious the Kremlin is about constitutional reform -- be transformed, but it really won't
disappear. United Russia is a catchall party with many political strands. It really isn't
a party; it's a coalition representing almost Russia's entire political spectrum. There
are nationalists, liberals, socialists and even old-time Communists in United Russia.
Actually, there is a lot of material to work with. This was part of the original design
for United Russia -- to be representative of Russia's political culture while in the
service of the Kremlin.
United Russia stands to be transformed into a number of parties. It is
quite possible that it will "break up" into separate groups under the banners of
"social-democracy," "left nationalist" and "conservative
(Russian) socialists" -- and all seeking some form of Kremlin patronage. These three
groups spun as separate and new -- in opposition to United Russia's legacy -- will be well
positioned to attract many voters from United Russia's existing electorate and present-day
liberal-conservative parties longing to be returned to representative institutions, such
as the communists and even possibly the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party and Rodina
(Motherland).
With each passing month, the Kremlin's interest in "Operation Successor" is set
to intensify. It should be expected that proposed changes to the constitution, rumored or
otherwise, will continue to attract the attention of media and spin-doctors intent on
creating news. The real news, however, will be found elsewhere. If Russia is to become a
parliamentary republic in which Putin continues to hold on power, then more attention
should be focused on how that will come about with the necessary transformation of
Russia's political parties.
Peter Lavelle is an independent Moscow-based analyst and the author of Untimely Thoughts,
an electronic newsletter on Russia at untimely-thoughts.com.
"The Washington Times", February 10, 2005
http://www.washtimes.com/
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