Russia's friends and foes

Peter Lavelle

Moscow, Russia, Jun. 9 (UPI) -- A recent public opinion poll suggests Russians clearly believe the country has friends and foes in the world. However, results also suggest Russians are almost evenly split -- for some a foe is a friend and a friend a foe. Is Russia still looking for its place in the world?

The Levada Center, Russia's independent and most-respected public opinion agency, polled 1,600 Russians older than 18 years of age at the end May to determine how the general population sees the outside world. Determining which countries in the world are Russia's friends and foes produced surprises and even contradictions.

News reports of the Levada Center's findings did not make clear whether citizens polled were prompted with names of countries or asked to number countries on their own. The poll also did not provide a margin of error.

Belarus came out on top as Russia's greatest friend in the world with 46 percent. Following Belarus, Germany came in second with 23 percent and Russia's other friends include Kazakhstan 20 percent, Ukraine 17 percent, India16 percent, France 13 percent, China 12 percent, the United States 11 percent, Bulgaria 11 percent and Armenia 9 percent.

On the other side of the ledger, Latvia topped the list as Russia's strongest foe according to 49 percent of respondents. Following it, Lithuania with 42 percent, Georgia at 38 percent, Estonia 32 percent, the United States 23 percent, France 13 percent, Afghanistan 12 percent, Iraq 10 percent, Japan 6 percent and Iran 6 percent.

Cursory review of the poll's findings shows many interesting issues currently in play. Russia's greatest recent enemy -- Germany -- is widely seen to be a friend. Russia's other important adversary during the World War II, Japan, is not widely seen to be an enemy by a vast majority of those polled.

Many of the countries that are considered enemies now are Russia's neighbors. The recent heated public demand and diplomatic row that Russia should apologize to the Baltic republics for a half century of Soviet occupation should be ascribed to the current antipathy many Russian have toward those countries. The widely held belief that Russian nationals living in the Baltic republics are denied some basic human rights have also influenced public perceptions of these countries.

The former Soviet republic of Georgia is also viewed in a dim light among many Russians. The close relationship President Mikhail Saakashvili has pursued with the United States and the tug-of-war over the closure of Russian military bases in the country has soured Russia-Georgian relations in the public mind.

The perception of Ukraine and the United States is the most striking and contradictory of the poll results -- both countries are deemed as friend and foe by many of the respondents.

Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" and many of the anti-Russian overtones that could be heard in media claiming Kremlin "meddling" in Ukraine's internal affairs continues to be irksome to many Russians. At the same time, people-to-people and economic relations continue to tie the two countries together.

The perception of the United States appears to be almost schizophrenic. The fact that more respondents see it as a foe than as a friend could be accounted for as a lingering Cold War phenomenon. However, what may be more important than the past is many of the countries considered foes have good relations with Washington. After all, President Bush sandwiched his recent visit Moscow with stops in Latvia and Georgia.

Another important result of the public opinion poll is the conclusion that the majority of Russians asked have no majority consensus of one international friend or foe and a significant minority who believe it has more foes than friends.

The poll result also demonstrates how Russia has maintained close ties with former Soviet friends, India for example. But Russia has also reached out to former Soviet foes, namely the United States. Some former constituent parts of the Soviet Union -- once considered "family" -- rate high as countries most disliked.

The most compelling reason for the lack of consensus among many Russians can be explained as a reflection of Russia still trying to find its place in the world after the Soviet collapse 14 years ago.

Most importantly, Russia appears to find it hardest to come to terms with many of the countries it has had the closest relations with for centuries. This should serve as a wake up call for the Kremlin that Russia's neighbors are also coping to find their place in the world.

Peter Lavelle is United Press International's Moscow correspondent.

To discuss on a forum >>