A Strong Japanese Initiative in Central Asia
S. Frederick Starr
Japan has long been one of the most active powers in Central Asia,
allocating over $2 billion from 1992 to 2002. This year, Japan embarked on a major new
initiative in the region, based on continuing its bilateral activities but launching a new
dimension, a region-wide dialogue with all five regional states that will periodically
consult as a group. The concrete developments of this new regional forum remain to be
seen, but it certainly is aimed to put Japan at par with other regional players in the
region. Japan's economic weight is certain to give the initiative attention in the region.
Japan's move is in full harmony with American interests in Central Asia, and represents a
step toward the creation of a 'concert' of interested powers.
BACKGROUND:In late August Japan unveiled a major new initiative with respect to the five
countries of Central Asia formed after the collapse of the USSR. Since 1992 Japan has
pursued an active if low-keyed policy of supporting economic and social development in the
new states of Central Asia. Down to 2002 it had allocated a total of $2.36 billion US in
grants, technical cooperation, and loans to the region, including $915 million to
Kazakhstan, $909 million to Uzbekistan, $345 million to the Kyrgyz Republic, $54 million
to Tajikistan and $55 million to Turkmenistan. It has supported 2,600 trainees in Japan
and sent out 1,100 experts and volunteers from Japan to the region. Its 1997 Silk Road
Diplomacy Program organized these and other programs under a single umbrella of bilateral
relations with each country.
Now it has stepped up that engagement with an intensified program built
on two pillars: first, the continuation and expansion of existing bilateral activities
and, second, the enhancement of that work with a new region-wide initiative that it calls
the "Central Asia Plus Japan Dialogue." Minister of Foreign Relations Ms. Yoriko
Kawaguchi launched the new initiative at a meeting with Central Asian foreign ministers
held in Astana, Kazakhstan on 26-27 August.
The new program commits Japan and the five Central Asian states to consult regularly as a
group and carry out joint programs that will foster region-wide interaction and
development. Central Asian countries were represented by their foreign ministers except
for Turkmenistan, which sent only an ambassador. Since the Japanese Ministry of Foreign
Affairs treats Afghanistan as a Middle Eastern country it is not included under the
initiative, but Japanese programs to improve transport to the South and other initiatives
involving Afghanistan suggest that Central Asia Plus Japan will be attuned to
Afghanistan's needs and possibilities as well.
A wide variety of initiatives have already been proposed, the list to
be refined at a follow-up meeting. Judging by past Japanese projects in the region, one
can assume it will include training and other work to combat the financing of terrorism,
improve immigration and customs controls, provide aviation security, improve local
administration and policing, develop the legal systems and transparency, support small and
medium sized businesses, and promote advancements in the areas of energy and the
environment.
Of particular interest is the fact that Japan proposes to venture deeper into the areas of
democracy building. In Astana Japan's Minister of Foreign Affairs spoke of the
compatibility between developing a country's unique culture and "realizing a
democracy which respects the inherent dignity of human beings." In particular, she
pointed to the damage that "vested interests" can do to a country, and noted
that Japan's post WWII development hinged on its decision to stop paying salaries to the
old samurai. Her call for "significant moral physical courage" in the cause of
reform was not lost on her audience.
IMPLICATIONS:Japan has ratcheted up its involvement with Central Asia,
taking advantage of its commitment to non-military solutions and programs. This change
does not affect the Caucasus, however, which remain on the periphery of Japan's interest,
notwithstanding energy sources there. Also, Karabakh is a major stumbling block to deeper
Japanese engagement in the Caucasus.
By creating yet another forum for Central Asian regional dialogue, Japan follows the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Central Asia Cooperation Organization, Economic
Cooperation Organization, and many other groups, not to mention all the major
international banks and development agencies.
Central Asia Plus Japan Dialogue is not without political meaning, however, as Russia's
and China's keen interest in the project confirms. While Japan disavows any political
motive and affirms that its initiative is not directed against anyone, the very existence
of the new entity increases the options open to the regional states themselves.
The next steps in the Central Asia Plus Japan initiative remain undefined. It is likely
that a meeting of senior officials will follow, and that this would lead to further
sessions at the ministerial level and possibly then to a meeting of heads of state.
With its new initiative, Japan has ratcheted up its engagement with
Central Asia. By so doing, it implies that future discussions of the region's interests in
such diverse areas as economic development, trade, security, environment, and regional
cooperation will have to include Japan, as well as China, Russia, the United States, and
Europe. The scale of its program will set the bar for other aspiring participants,
including India, Korea, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran.
The Central Asian ministers fully understand this. Acknowledging the benefits accruing
from Japan's presence on the scene, they unanimously voted in support for Japan's
inclusion as a permanent member of the UN's Security Council.
CONCLUSIONS:Japan's initiative fully harmonizes with US policy in the
region and also that of the European Union. It represents a further step towards the
development of what might be termed a "concert" of interested powers, i.e., an
ever-expanding group of states that have significant interests in the region and believe
they can best be protected by strengthening the region from within rather than from
without. Such a "concert," if it develops further, will inevitably be built on
the realization by outside powers that they all gain most by practicing mutual
self-restraint rather than by seeking unilateral or bilateral advantage, let alone by
seeking economic or geopolitical dominance.
AUTHOR'S BIO:S. Frederick Starr is Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Johns
Hopkins University-SAIS.
Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, October 20, 2004
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